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bad decisions podcast

2020 © Anchor FM Inc. All rights reserved. If they make a quick decision they rely on these simple heuristics of, “Well, I just approved three loans in a row, I should probably deny this one.” But if I’m forced to actually just use information and think about it slowly because I really want to get it right – because I get punished if I don’t – then I don’t rely on those simple heuristics as much. – Listen to Bad Decisions instantly on your tablet, phone or browser - no downloads needed. Because the rules state that each pitch is independent in terms of calling it correctly — it’s either in the strike zone or it’s not. 435). And then obviously if it’s two cases in the same day it gets even bigger, it starts to approach about 5 percent. And what we find is that’s not true. Interesting. And she’s a co-author on another paper, called “A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects in Financial Markets.”. (Photo: Keith Allison/flickr), Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “How to Make a Bad Decision.” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above.). MOSKOWITZ: … which basically meant you just got paid for doing your job, whether you got it right or wrong, what we would call flat incentive. All Rights Reserved. DUBNER: So the lesson if I’m seeking asylum, or any other ruling, what I really want to do is bribe someone to let me get to the judge right after he or she has rejected the previous few applicants, right? Which might make you question the fundamental decision-making ability of human beings generally — and whether we’d be better off getting robots to make more of the relatively simple judgment calls in our life, like whether a baseball pitch is a ball or a strike. Join us next week when we'll be talking about care givers & their littles. The umpire should be consistent and call that pitch the same way every time. Also: how stock prices are affected by when a company reports earnings: SHUE: It makes today’s earnings announcement seem kind of less good in comparison. The Bad Decisions Club Episode 11 - Monogamish. For those of you not familiar with baseball: there are four umpires working every game — one behind home plate and one at each of the three bases. Today’s episode was produced by Harry Huggins. MOSKOWITZ: If effort can help, that’s right. MOSKOWITZ: That’s correct. It’s kind of blowing my mind in the last couple days. It’s also interesting, to me at least, that what the Moskowitz research is pushing against is an instinct that a lot of people are trying to develop, which is pattern-spotting. Melissa is a member of the Australian Psychological Society and an Honorary Fellow of the Australian Centre on Quality … We see this all the time, that the sequence of candidates that come through for a job, I think, matters. We are Holly & Jack, a twenty something, monogom-ish, hetro-ish couple talking about all things sex and relationships. Bad Decisions is the podcast that helps marketers understand why we choose what we choose, why we think what we think, and how to exploit this stuff for fun and commercial gain. Here’s what a lot of people would predict: “Let’s see, heads-heads-heads … it’s gotta come up tails this time.” Even though you know a coin toss is a random event, and that each flip is independent — and therefore the odds for any one coin toss are … 50-50. But people have this notion that randomness is alternating. MOSKOWITZ: …sequential contrast effects. Join us weekly to hear our thoughts, talk to us on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/BadDcisionClub & Instagram https://www.instagram.com/baddecisionsclub_/ They start with the fundamentals. She was the sixteenth employee at Google — a company once based in her garage — and now she's the C.E.O. All contents © 2020 Freakonomics, LLC. It’s another bias known as …. Some of our most important decisions are shaped by something as random as the order in which we make them. So those are pretty big numbers. And you’ll find credits for the music in the episode noted within the transcript. And so is there any way for all of us to try to avoid the bias of the gambler’s fallacy, to try to I guess connect more with an absolute measure, rather than a relative measure? The errors may balance out, but to those applicants, there is huge consequences. Hi everyone, thanks for listening to our new podcast 'The Bad Decisions Club'! College students will rate pictures of their female classmates to be less attractive if they’ve recently been exposed to videos of more attractive actresses. That’s a remarkable number, in my opinion. This week, I'm following up with some updates on post-COVID progress s well as a little behind-the-scenes info about my amazing Emmy opportunity! Keep it comin’ girl!! Premium French Terry Long Sleeve – Shift Happens (Bone), Premium French Terry Long Sleeve – Social But Distant (Black), Premium Heavyweight Hoodie – Shift Happens (Black), Premium Heavyweight Hoodie – Shift Happens (Bone), Premium French Terry Long Sleeve – Shift Happens (Black), Premium French Terry Long Sleeve – Social But Distant (Bone), ‘Shift Happens. (NSQ Ep. Keep an eye on  our socials to see what next weeks episode is about! WENDELSTEDT: Well, now I’m a Major League baseball umpire. And is the time on the clock even or odd? WENDELSTEDT: You hold up a baseball. Even if their case is just as viable, their chances of getting asylum go down by 5 percent. DUBNER: How much did loan officers in India fall prey to the gambler’s fallacy? Making decisions, after all, is a big part of what makes us human. Most people’s brains are not. Obviously if you think about asylum judges, the absolute measure sort of your overall approval or denial rate might be good from a judge’s perspective, but it’s certainly not great from the applicant’s perspective if you make a lot of errors on the side. Now available for iPhone, iPad, Android and Alexa, This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. So that’s a 36 percent error rate, it’s big. You take Clayton Kershaw —  the umpire is going to call more strikes when Clayton Kershaw’s out there. Let’s hope that federal asylum judges aren’t deciding 50 percent of their cases based on sequencing. An outspoken New Yorker and Nurse Practitioner, Katie pushes boundaries to explore the life decisions that don’t always turn out like you expect. What I should do is what some of the best pitchers in baseball do. The Bad Decisions Club - Episode 15 Part 2 Answering You Questions, Hi everyone, thanks for listening to our new podcast 'The Bad Decisions Club'! The arc when it leaves the pitcher’s arm to when it crosses the plate. But maybe there is a way…. We are Holly & Jack, a twenty something, monogom-ish, hetro-ish couple talking about all things sex and relationships. © Lasting Media Group, LLC. She keeps it 100% real. But what if these researchers are just wrong? So I want to qualify that because what we can show is whether the sequencing of approval or denial decisions has any bearing on the likelihood that the next case is approved or denied. MOSKOWITZ: Let’s hope that federal asylum judges aren’t deciding 50 percent of their cases based on sequencing. One beauty of the original experiment was that it had the loan officers working under one of three different incentive schemes. This week we're talking about sexism! "Bad Decisions… Toby Moscowitz again: MOSKOWITZ: Meaning if the decisions that you’re making occur very close in time then you tend to fall prey to the sequencing effect. Interestingly, baseball uses six umps during the postseason, adding two more down the outfield lines — which has always struck me as either a jobs program or a rare admission of umpiring fallibility. Some other cue that would just give him a sense of, “Well, I’ll throw a fastball if the clock ends on an even number and the inning’s even I’ll throw a slider if it’s an odd, I should say to myself, “If the score is if it’s even or odd, whatever, if I count five blades of grass on the court as opposed to three.” Something that’s totally random and has nothing to do with it, allows me to supply that random strategy, which my brain is not very good at doing.

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